Troy's briefs no 9

Troy's briefs - changed (mostly) weekly. This week by briefs are a brief over view of the economy.

The UK economy is set to grow in line with HM Treasury's (revised) predictions over the next year, according to the latest estimates.

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A study from the good old National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that the UK's GDP will grow by 2.3 per cent in 2006. This figure is in line with December's pre-Budget report, in which chancellor Gordon Brown said the GDP would rise (having revised his estimates downwards) by two to 2.5 per cent.

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While the forecast growth will still be below trend, a pick-up will come from domestic demand as investment, government consumption and household spending all strengthen. In other words it can only get better.

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An improvement in net trade will add to the recovery in 2007, when the NIESR says GDP is expected to grow by 2.7 per cent. But that is just below Brown's prediction of 2.75 per cent over the year.

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Other key findings of last Friday's report are that export growth will strengthen over the next two years.

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Inflation will remain around the government's target rate of two per cent.

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An increase in net migration will put downward pressure on inflation and boost GDP growth.

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The housing market remains very much overvalued by around 20 per cent, largely because of the favourable tax treatment of owner-occupied housing, says the study. Thus this blog predicts a sharp national reduction in house values over the next twelve months.

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The report also finds that the government will continue to run an overall budget deficit of around three per cent of GDP between 2005/06 and 2007/08.

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But it predicts the current-budget deficit will narrow to £9bn or 0.7 per cent of GDP, in 2006/07, most of which is structural since the economy will be operating at capacity by the end of 2007.

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The governor of the Bank of England suggested yesterday (Monday) that an increase in tax rates has contributed to the decline in consumer spending and slower economic growth; wich is of course blindingly obvious.

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Trimming the Bank's forecast for growth this year, Mervyn King remained optimistic about future prospects. However he said: "In the second half of 2004, disposable incomes were lower in nominal terms than a year earlier, so it was hardly surprising that households had less to spend."

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Mind you if there is a major (long term) political crises (ie an other war in the Middle East) the long term effect on oil prices will bugger up most of the above assumptions.

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Indeed so.

The Sunday Quote 143

''You foot the Bill for the old Bill Merger''

The front page of The Journal - The North East of England -Thursady 26 January 2006

The article explains that Council tax payers in the Norhumbria Police force are will face a 40 per cent increase in their demands if the Governments controversial plans for a sumersised regional force are implemented.

Crime figures

We should tolerate government only because the alternative – having no government – is worse, but only as long as we, the citizens of a democracy, keep it in check.
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Too often, though, the gullible "sheeple" believe governments to be a force for good, no better demonstrated than by the generally positive rating given to the EU over its environmental legislation, despite the appalling costs and the damage done.

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It helps, therefore, occasionally, to bring the message home, addressing issues with which people are more familiar, to which they can personally equate. And there is nothing closer to home in this respect than crime, figures for which were released yesterday.

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These figures reveal increases in major categories of crime. For instance, in the three months to September 2005, there were 315,800 violent incidents, compared with 304,300 in the same period in 2004 – an overall increase of four percent, with an 11 percent rise in the number of robberies. This is the biggest jump in street robberies for three years. .However, while acknowledging this rise – how could it do otherwise – the government points to its "success" in countering domestic burglary. This peaked in the mid-1990's and fell by 47 percent in 2003/04, albeit at a still massive level, the level in England and Wales then recorded at 943,000 incidents.

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Furthermore, to explain the rise in street crime, police are trying to shift the blame to "teen-on-teen" crimes in which children attack each other for desirable items such as mobile phones, iPods and bicycles. This beguilingly simple explanation, however, does not even begin to do justice to the phenomenon.

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What is happening, to a very great extent, is that crime is being displaced. In terms of burglary, householders, fed up with the rash of burglaries and police inaction have taken their own measures, have bought the improvements in burglary figures through increased vigilance and security, investing upwards of £430 million a year in security bolts and locks, in thief-proof double glazing and burglar alarms. And now that houses are not such the easy targets that they were, the thieves have moved elsewhere.

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Similarly, reductions in car crime have been achieved primarily by insurers and car manufacturers, through features such as immobilisers, steering locks and car alarms. Yet this appears to have been offset by an upsurge in "car hijacking" – a crime normally associated with third world countries. Again, thieves have adapted their tactics to changed circumstances..In an attempt at damage limitation, the Home Office glosses over the increased robberies and claims that the current British Crime Survey indicates that overall crime has fallen two percent, and violent crime by five.

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This, again, is misleading. In the latter category, sexually related offences are not recorded, which makes overall estimation difficult. Additionally, violence against the person crimes are both notoriously under-recorded and acutely sensitive to variations in reporting procedures.

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As to crime overall, there are huge gaps in the statistics. Neither fraud nor "commercial" crime are recorded in the Survey. Yet a study carried out by the Federation of Small Businesses revealed that nearly 60 percent of businesses had been the victims of crime, while over a quarter did not report it. Other data suggest that police may record only between 1 in 100 and one in 1000 shoplifting offences, and anecdotal reports suggest that internet crime (also not recorded by the British Crime Survey) is a major growth area which the criminal justice system is struggling to contain. In other words, there is considerable evidence that, where one category of crime is targeted, criminals simply change their behaviour to exploit other weaknesses. Then, as long as their are huge gaps in the recording of crime – and criminal activity is being displaced to non-recorded categories – global crime statistics are unrelaible. They could well (and probably do) conceal an overall rise in criminality.

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Needless to say, the government does not in any way recognise (or acknowledge) this state of affairs. Instead, as reported by the Times website, Clarke is asking "why (the) public doesn't trust crime figures". To find out, he is spending public money on a review of "why the public refuses to believe good news that crime is falling."

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The Home Sectary has set up a group to look at how Home Office crime figures are compiled and published, "in an attempt to allay the public's exaggerated fear of crime and the perception that society is growing ever more lawless."."I have been concerned for some time that Home Office crime statistics have been questioned and challenged," he says. "This has got to the point that most people seem confused about what is happening to crime in this country, he adds, stating, "Despite the fact that most crime categories are falling, fear of crime is still too high and public perception is often at odds with reality. That is why we need to look again at the statistics and find out why people do not believe them.”

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But people are not confused. The reason why they don't believe crime statistics is because their own eyes and their own experiences tell them they are not true. They also know that their police are manifestly failing to get to grips with crime, witness the recent report that the Metropolitan Police spent more on paperwork than in fighting crime - £123 million compared with £62.2 million dealing with robberies and £42.2 million on house burglaries.

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But here, at least, we can rely on our own senses. In how many other areas, though, do our different levels of government "inform" us, where we have no means of checking veracity? And if this government honesty cannot relied on the matter of our own personal safety and security, how can we believe it on anything else?.

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It is not necessarily the case that everything our governments do tell us in untrue but, in our relations with them, there should be no question of "benefit of the doubt". The presumption must be that, if not actively lying to us, they are attempting to mislead – until proven otherwise.

Blair's blunder.

By Sarah-Jane Hollands, Plod-Watch Duty Officer.
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Showing an alarming lack of sensitivity, Sir Ian (Plod) Blair has once again plunged head first into controversy.
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This time, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner sparked outrage countrywide, when during an attack on what he described as "institutional racism" in the British Media, he unbelievably claimed that "almost nobody could understand the level of interest in the Soham murder case"and continued "putting it bluntly, it is a quiet news day, it's August, these things can blow up. Sometimes it is difficult to understand why that is."
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Let us not forget that this blog first called for the resignation of Plod Blair as far back as last July, in the wake of the de Menezes shooting at Stockwell Station.
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It would appear that many people both inside and outside the Met believe that the time has come for Blair to stand down.
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Speaking as the mother of a ten year old girl, I feel that Blair overstepped the mark, by dragging the memory of Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman into his petty squabbles with the media.

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I am not alone. A retired Met Police officer said Blair's words "read like a resignation letter".

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Once again, Sir Ian, we implore you - do the decent thing - resign, please and in future, consider the feelings of the Wells and Chapman families and let poor Holly and Jessica rest in peace.

Troy's briefs no.008

Troy's Briefs - changed most weeks - that EU payment rebate issue.

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Frank Carstairs writes:

The following is an extract from a letter in our local paper. "...even if we had relinquished our rebate in its entirety...our net contributions to the EU budget this year would only have amounted to 0.6% of GDP. As it is ...for this year settled at 0.2% of GDP"

J W Wokingham Labour Party.

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Anyone got some ammo for me to fire at this rodent?

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Some ammo:


Well now, because of the peculiarities of the way the multi-annual EU budget pans out, the UK rebate is largely unchanged for the first three years of the financial period 2007-13, Blair's give-away kicking in only in 2010, when instead of £1 billion it will be nearly £2 billion, for that and successive years. The figure is likely to be "locked in" as a minimum annual deduction when a new budget is negotiated for the period after 2013.

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As indeed we all struggle to come to terms with the small-print of EU budget settlement last December, a commission document has re-emerged which shows that Blair's surrender was in any event pre-ordained, since July of 2004.( "COM 2004 505 final, Volume II, Technical Annex: Financing the European Union Commission report on the operation of the own resources system")

In clinical detail the EU document sets out all the reasons why the British rebate had to be reduced, and even offered various options for its reduction, one of which Blair actually adopted.

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The rebate problem, of course, goes back to the Thatcher's Fontainebleau agreement in 1984, when the "colleagues" agreed to a rebate (or "correction") on the UK contribution, returning 66 percent of the difference between gross contributions and receipts, a situation that survived until last month when Blair offered his spectacular surrender or to be more accurate simply followed EU Commission instructions.

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What really messed up the Thatcher agreement was EU enlargement. As more countries joined – most of whom were to become net beneficiaries – this meant that the contributions from the net payers, including Britain, had to increase. Because that increase would be paid over to the accession countries, this meant that the gap between the UK contribution and its receipts would also increase, which necessarily meant that the rebate would increase.

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This is pointed out in the commission document, which records that "Estimates indicate that over the period 2007-2013 the UK correction will increase by more than 50 percent compared to the average over the latest 7 years to reach an estimated £7.1 billion from £4.6 billion in the period 1997-2003." It then goes on to say:

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''Although the envisaged enlargement to 10 new Member States was unanimously agreed at the Berlin European Council in March 1999, the UK insisted and obtained that enlargement-related expenditure be taken into account when calculating the UK correction, thus shielding it from most of the financial consequences of enlargement. That is the main reason for the expected future increase in the UK correction.''
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This is interesting, in that this was the agreement that locked in stone the CAP spending, from which France so much benefits so, while the CAP agreement remained inviolate, the UK rebate was a different matter.

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To start with, though, the commission did acknowledge that, in the absence of any correction mechanism, "the UK would have been on average the largest net contributor over the last seven years, and would probably remain the largest net contributor to the EU budget over the period 2007-2013."But it then pointed out that, if the current system continued, the UK net contribution would drop from a potential 0.62 percent GNI (without correction) to 0.25 percent GNI, the lowest rate for all the expected net contributors except Finland (on 0.21 percent), way below the Netherlands at 0.56 percent, Germany at 0.54 percent and even France at 0.37 percent.

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The commission had decided in July of 2004 that "the current system of a unique correction for the UK therefore cannot continue", and continue it did not.

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What the commission then did in the report was offer a series of options for reducing the rebate, one of which was to freeze the level at the current rate. Another was to bring down the rebate to 33 percent but another was to exclude enlargement-related expenditure. This was the option Blair chose, but it was not his – or the UK's – idea.

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It was one of the "choices" given to him by the commission.The effect of that was to increase Britain's net contribution from 0.25 percent GNI to 0.39 percent, with the happy side-effect for our Gallic "partners" that the French net contribution went down from 0.37 to 0.33 percent, with other net contributors also reducing their payments.

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Blair was under intense political pressure in what was regarded as one of his worst weeks in politics since the 1997 election. Was he going to then announce that he was "under instructions" from the commission to reduce the "Thatcher" rebate? Clearly not.

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Blair will pay for his betrayal in Brussels - Britain which, for almost the entire period of its membership, has been one of only two countries to make any net payment to the EU – could have been spared its annual tribute of £12 billion, and might have used these savings to (for example) give us all a two thirds cut in council tax.According to the Financial Times Blair's 'concession' on the rebate appears to be far bigger than Downing Street has publicly admitted, leaving the UK up to £2bn worse off each year by the end of this decade.
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Although the Prime Minister 'agreed' to slash the cash the UK receives from the rebate by £7bn over the seven years from 2007 to 2013, analysis of detail of the agreement shows that the UK's rebate will in fact remain untouched in 2007 and 2008. Instead, the £7bn cash loss suffered by the UK is to be compressed into the years between 2009 and 2013.An analysis carried out by the Financial Times shows that the Treasury will forego about £500m in 2009, rising to £1.5bn in 2010, and £2bn in each of the subsequent years from 2011 to 2013.Anyway, in secret (as always) the EU is planning to introduce a direct tax which will simplify the income negotiations in future decades.

On the Monday (19th December 2005) a Labour/Coop MP for West Dunbartonshire, John McFall, was prompted to put down a Written Question for the Chancellor (the Labour MP for another Scottish constituency, Kirkcaldy) on the EU Budget for the seven –year period 2007-2013 inclusive. On 20th December a Written Answer responded to Mr McFall’s question.

This is how Hansard reported the exchange (at Col 2796W):-

EU Budget

Mr McFall: to ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what the UK’s contribution to the EU Budget will be in each year from 2007 to 2013 under the recently agreed [in Brussels] budget.

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Mr Gordon Brown: The estimated extra costs will be £500 million (0.09 per cent of public spending) in 2007-08, zero in 2008-09, £1.0 billion (0.16 per cent) in 2009-10, and between £1.6 billion and 1.9 billion (0.23 per cent and 0.26 per cent) each year between 2010 and 2012-13.
The fiscal forecast will be updated as usual at the Budget.

Sharp-eyed readers will have spotted that, first of all, Mr Brown ignored the actual question asked, which was: "What will the UK’s contribution be ?" Instead, Mr Brown chose to quote the "extra costs" – a quite different kettle of fish.

Second, even more curiously, Mr Brown only gave figures for six financial years, not for the seven years 2007-2013. A genuine mistake no doubt – after all, what’s a couple of billion pounds of UK taxpayers’ money between friends ?

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In conclusion, a quote from Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) ''I have made this letter longer than usual, only because I have not had the time to make it shorter''.
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Indeed so.
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I trust the above posting is suitable ammo, but remember rodents fight back.

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For further reading please click here and here.

Definitely defiant

Peter Hitchens in his column in The Mail on Sunday makes reference at the bottom of page 29 to 'Opposition Defiant Disorder' relating the background to a condition that particular 6 year old boy is suffering from.

At the top of the same page Mr Hitchens informs his readers that David Cameron, 'the boy-king' or more officially the leader of the Conservative Party and thus the Leader of Her Majesties Loyal Opposition has declined to be interviewed by the frank and robust columnist.

Clearly the boy-king is a fellow sufferer !

Burns night

By Sarah-Jane Hollands, Poetry Editor.

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Tonight is Burns' Night, in honour of the Scottish poet Rabbie Burns. So for our many readers, Scottish or otherwise, we re-print here one of his most famous pieces.

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Be honest - did you know ALL the words? Or their meanings? And as undoubtedly, Hogmanay (New Year's Eve) is the time when world wide, Burns' work is recited, perhaps 31st December should be Burns' Night.

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AULD LANG SYNE

Words adapted from a traditional song by Rabbie Burns (1759-96)

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,And never brought to mind? Should auld acquaintance be forgot, And auld lang syne?

CHORUS:

For auld lang syne, my dear, For auld lang syne, We'll tak a cup of kindness yet, For auld lang syne!

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And surely ye'll be your pint-stowp, And surely I'll be mine, And we'll tak a cup o kindness yet, For auld lang syne!

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We twa hae run about the braes, And pou'd the gowans fine, But we've wander'd monie a weary fit, Sin auld lang syne.
We twa hae paidl'd in the burn Frae morning sun till dine, But seas between us braid hae roar'd, Sin auld lang syne.

And there's a hand my trusty fiere, And gie's a hand o thine, And we'll tak a right guid-willie waught, For auld lang syne.

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Meanings
auld lang syne - times gone by

be - pay

forbraes - hills

braid - broad

burn - stream

dine - dinner time

fiere - friend

fit - foot

gowans - daisies

guid-willie waught - goodwill drink

monie - many

morning sun - noon

paidl't - paddled

pint-stowp - pint tankard

pou'd - pulled

twa - two

The mid week quote no 12

"Citizens should not be forced to have ID cards. Compulsion is too often resorted to by the modern state. It comes from an intensely managerial culture in which regulation rules. That sits uneasily with fundamental rights."


Spoken by Lord Phillips of Sudbury (Liberal Democrat), in the House of Lords (Monday 21 February). The Governments identity cards plan suffered another severe setback when the Lords voted to keep it as a voluntary scheme.

One can only hope that the Noble Lord will take time to read both the Maastricht Treaty as well as an analysis of The European Constitution !

Tune in for Troy

By Sarah-Jane Hollands, Radio Correspondent.

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This evening from 10.30pm onwards, esteemed Editor, Peter Troy, will be speaking live on BBC Radio Cleveland, holding forth on subjects such as the regionalisation and merger of the nation's police Forces, which of course he is very much against.

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You can listen live, and why not call in and join the debate - all opinions welcomed, but not necessarily agreed with!

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The decline and fall of the British media.

The British media - or its decline - is as great a threat to our democracy as the European Union. Please click to read '' The limits of the media"

Police mergers

Police mergers will create Euro-regions by stealth

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By Christoper Booker

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A month after the deadline for responses to the Home Office, not one of the 43police forces in England Wales has given approval to the Government's plans for the most radical restructuring of our policing since 1829.

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Charles Clarke and Hazel Blears wish to merge the 43 forces into 12 regional "super forces" as part of John Prescott's grand design to divide up the United Kingdom into"Euro-regions", each under its own government.

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No chief constable has been more forthright in opposition to this plan than Paul West, whose West Mercia force, serving Shropshire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire, is officially rated as the best-performing force in the country.

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Last week Mr West was taken by a local MP, Owen Paterson, to put his case to Ms Blears at the Home Office. Dismissing his force's exceptional record, it soon became apparent that she attached no significance to his views. It was painfullyc lear that "consultation" is only a charade.

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The Government is bent on forcing through its regional agenda regardless. Following the overwhelming rejection of an elected regional assembly by the voters of the North-East, it seems the Government is hoping to reach its goal the other way round. So many powers are now being passed upwards from local authorities to unelected regional bodies - from police and planning to fire and ambulance services - that eventually, it is hoped, people will demand that these are made democratically accountable through elected regional governments.

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The greatest revolution in local government for 1,000 years will be complete - without the Government ever having had to admit openly what it was up to.

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The debate on Policing will be advanced by a broadcast by the blog editor on BBC Radio Cleveland at 10.30 on Monday evening.

Galloway's troubles grow

By Helen Szamuely

Somehow it seems appropriate to write about George Galloway’s troubles on the anniversary of Lenin’s death. (Yes, I know, it was actually yesterday, January 21, but the sun is shining and I am still celebrating.)

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So what else can go wrong for Gorgeous George? Two separate reports, by the Senate Commission and the Volcker Commission, came up with different sets of documents that show the same thing: money was going into his or his wife’s accounts from the oil-for-food scam. He has denied it all but has not, as yet, agreed to answer questions directly. I am sure Senator Norm Coleman is devastated.

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He has managed to alienate a few (not too many, admittedly) people by his nauseating fawning on the Boy Assad, as Mark Steyn calls him, and by rushing up for a little cosy fireside chat with Fidel Castro.All of that was as nothing compared to his decision to join the list of fading celebs in the Big Brother House and bringing disgrace to the good name of the feline by his antics. Up with this even his left-wing cronies will not put.

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Most interestingly, while in the House (where, I understand, he has managed to annoy and upset his housemates) and, therefore, incommunicado, he has managed to sign a number of Early Day Motions in another House, that of the Commons. Given that he does not precisely frequent the place even when he is not miaowing and lapping milk, the achievement is impressive.

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Now comes the unkindest cut of all. Thanks to Little Green Footballs, we find out that an Islamic organization has issued a fatwa on the wretched Galloway. Strictly speaking, it is not clear whether they can do so, but they have done it nevertheless and using language that is distinctly fruity.

“Recently, Allah (SWT) has disgraced these so-called Muslims and the one they have associated with Allah, George Galloway, by causing him to appear on a reality TV show "Celebrity Big Brother". Shows such as this contain all the corruption Allah (SWT) has forbidden, such as free-mixing, fornication, drinking, nudity, swearing and many other abominable acts. These kinds of programmes attract only the lowest of the low who desperately seek recognition and fame by any means possible.

They are people who have no honour, respect or dignity and can only be described as animals. George Galloway will certainly have no trouble fitting in as he has all the criteria the show is looking for. Just recently, the media has shown George Galloway at his best – behaving like a cat (animal) purring at the hands of a woman. This is not surprising as one cannot expect anything more from a person of such low intellect and morality, a representative of those who voted for him.

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Furthermore, we all saw how Allah (SWT) humiliated and exposed the hypocritical (munaafiq) organisation based in the East London Mosque, Islamic Forum Europe, after Mr Galloway's election victory last year. They were shown on television, and in newspapers, carrying the najas (impure) Galloway on their shoulders, celebrating and parading the one they had shamelessly associated with Allah in order to gain some worldly benefits.Is this the animal they took as a lord (lawmaker) besides Allah? Is this animal the one they chose to ally with instead of the believers? Is this the animal they chose to represent them in this world and the Hereafter? Is this the animal they campaigned for and called other Muslims to vote for? Is this the animal they appointed to be their knight and liberate Muslim lands? Is this the animal they claimed embraced Islam? How many promises has he fulfilled? Which war has he stopped?”

Dare I say that language like that makes one purr with pleasure?

The Sunday quote no.142

The Sunday Quote

Speech by David Cameron to the Centre for Policy Studies, 8 November 2005: " In short, we need to campaign for capitalism. To promote profit. To fight for free trade. To remind, indeed to educate our citizens about the facts of economic life."

Article by David Cameron in the Mail on Sunday, 1 January 2006: "I don't believe in 'isms'. Words like communism, socialism, capitalism and republicanism all conjure up one image in my mind; extremism."

Well, I suppose that is a policy of sorts. After all it was John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) who said in his work, 'End of Laisez-Fair',: ''I think that capitalism wisely managed can probably be made more efficent for attaining economic ends than any alternative system yet in sight, but that in itself is in many ways extremely objectionable''.

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Perhaps our Dave (the boy-king), should campaign for entrepreneurialism (once it has been explained to him). There are 4.3 million small businesses in the UK badly in need of political support, who will only become extreme if they remain truly ignored by politicians.

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Visit this blog regularly for our very British opinions on the latest news, pertinent quotes and political comment.

Trendy growth

Survey points to fragility of UK economy.

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By Jamie Chisholm, Economics Reporter

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Confidence and domestic sales improved in the final quarter of last year but the health of the UK economy remains fragile, according tothe British Chambers of Commerce.

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The report dovetails with other recent data, suggesting growth isstarting to pick up but remains anaemic and below trend. The latest quarterly survey from the BCC showed the service sectorcontinued to expand with sales at home and abroad rising.

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Hard pressedmanufacturers also enjoyed a rebound though this was restricted toservicing domestic demand. Home sales for manufacturers jumped from a positive balance of 3 in thethe third quarter to 13 in the final quarter, and home orders climbedfrom minus 3 to plus.

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However, there was disappointing demand fromoverseas, with export sales and orders falling from 14 to 12 and 8 to 7respectively.

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David Frost, director general of the BCC, expressed concern for producer's prospects. "Manufacturing has persistently failed to sustain a recovery and, inspite of the modest Q4 improvement, the sector faces acute threats,"said Mr Frost, concluding: "Any UK recovery in 2006 is likely to be weakand below trend. Without supporting action by the Bank of England andthe chancellor, there is a danger of renewed relapse."

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The survey confirmed the worsening of the labour market. Official datareleased on Wednesday showed the rate of unemployment breaching 5 percent for the first time in two years and the BCC report revealed thebalance of expectations for employment fell for both manufacturers andservice companies.

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Given the uptick in activity, analysts were disappointed to note that manufacturers' investment intentions were weaker, though the sector maybe able to improve margins after more respondents said they would expectto raise their prices in the next three months.

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Commenting on the report, Howard Archer at Global Insight said: "The BCC survey shows that the capital expenditure plans of manufacturers andservices companies currently remain somewhat limited. "The deterioration in the labour market threatens to weigh down onfuture consumer spending. Overall, the survey supports the case for afurther interest rate cut, although the Bank of England will not behappy to see that the prices index for the manufacturing sector rose toits highest level for a year, while the services sector prices indexstabilised at the third-quarter's increased level."

End of week quote

French President, Chirac has announced that France is prepared to use its nuclear weapons if any other state will threaten it with terrorist attacks. He did not specify which other state he may have had in mind.

As reported by the BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg and numerous other news agencies Chirac announced at L’Ile-Longue, a nuclear submarine base in Brittany that leaders of states, who
“use terrorist means against us, just like anyone who would envisage using, in one way or another, arms of mass destruction, must understand that they would expose themselves to a firm and adapted response from us.”

These responses could be of conventional kind or of a “different kind”.

Apparently,"In numerous countries, radical ideas are spreading, advocating a confrontation of civilisations," he said, adding that "odious attacks" could escalate to "other yet more serious forms involving states".

Our changing world

From the Editor's keyboard.

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One of the advantages of writing forecasts for a new year a few weeks after it's start,is that the odds on accuracy are improved, all be it marginally.

Economists and political writers have predicted that the world economy will slow down, perhaps sharply - oil will be dearer as will house prices with doom and gloom around every corner.

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I confidently make three forecasts for AD 2006.

Firstly, this year will see the return, in the corporate world, of the good old fashioned middle manager who was culled as a result of the 'Delayering' fad in the '90s. With New-Middle Manager comes a super new fad - 'Granularity' which will be King (well for this year anyway).

In the corporate world managers will not discuss detail, they will however throw around with casual ease the buzz word of the year 'granularity'. A word that is usually applied to sugar has been in use for some time in the IT industries, it is now being applied to the size of components - the smaller the parts the greater the granularity and therefore the greater the flexibility of the whole. Oh yes indeed - this concept will be seized upon by managers and applied to all aspects of their business with inspired executive enthusiasm. Mark my words, there will be seminars, focus conferences and the like devoted to this new tool. Granularity will be in - granularity will be good.

Granularity will have implications on all of the business world - both large and small. It will be the small picture that counts, the charismatic strategic leader will be out of a job. In 2006 we will hear much less about leadership more about relayering. Which will of course make organisations more efficient, more responsive, more local and yes more granular. To achieve all this the middle manager will once again be need.

The management fashions that over use (and often misuse) those dreadful terms: re-engineering, benchmarking, total quality management will be replace by a derivative of granularity, 'quantifiable measurement'. This new fad will be a scientific method or measuring knowledge. It will, of course, be very complicated, dependent upon consultants for its integration into businesses and the ever growing government sponsored 'partnerships'.Business orientated people in 2006 will be encouraged to employ 'quality measurement and quantifying systems' and the inevitable qualification in the 'discipline' will become a life goal for aspiring young consultants.

My second prediction is the growth of the use of the bicycle, in 2006 . New sleek black panniers will be all the rage following a trend started by the City of London Rozzers (Police). Oh yes indeed, mark my words - businesspeople, managers and workers across all social-economic groups (whatever that means) will arrive at their work places in cycling shorts having ridden on a very expensive sleek over-engineered machine - the latest (and ultimate) granular machine.

As for my third prediction. I can state that with every confidence that my personal new year's revolution, as a confirmed and proud dyslexic, is to achieve the objective of being even more mindful a quote from JFK: ''no one man can change the world, but every one should try''.

Onward forward and upward.

PT

PS A Short term forecast: to be posted on this blog in the next few days. ''Who understands who Governs Britain ?'' and ''Politics in Britain after the EU.'' Two salient pieces examining the political future of the UK ignoring the petty drivel reported in the 'dead trees'.

Healthy alternatives

Two recommended web sites:

A healthy alternative exhibition, or should it be complementary exhibition, at Western Europe's largest Hospital site ? > http://www.hafairs.com/

Definitely a very healthy alternative, Police Constable Copperfield's off beat comments > http://coppersblog.blogspot.com

Cutting comment

By Sarah-Jane Hollands, Trash TV Correspondent.

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"You can take a whore to culture, but you can't make her think!"

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Pete Burns' (below), some think a highly amusing assessment of former Celebrity Big Brother housemate, Jodie Marsh, right.

Burns concidered by the editor of this blog to be clearly a moronic and revolting transvestite contiues to attract large viewing figues on the exhibitionist programme.

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Clogs, Coppers and Centralisation.

By Dr Richard North

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My gaze today fell upon the front page of The Daily Telegraph to see two headlines with the now obligatory colour photograph of a semi-clothed model (or is it an actress?) squeezed between them.

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I have, incidentally, posted back on one of the Telegraph "weblogs", as they so quaintly insist on calling them ("clogs", to you and me), pointing out that, increasingly, the main use for their newspaper is cat litter - except cat litter is cheaper and the text on the packet is more interesting (and takes longer to read).

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The main story is about "mini-brothels" being given the go-ahead and the second is about the possibility that "towing away cars could be a breach of human rights". This is, of course, at a time when the situation in Iran is giving us grown-ups cause for considerable concern, yet the paper does not see fit to report on latest developments on the front page.

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Despite that (or because of that), it finds room to print a picture of a pair of prostitute's (we assume) legs, occupying at least a quarter of a page (page 2).

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There is a third-page width colour picture of a female's ponytail on page 3, three more colour photographs of the semi-clothed model (or is it an actress?), again occupying at least a quarter of a page (page 5), and a picture of a hamster on page 7. And the people who put this thing together call themselves professionals? Ye Gods!

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Anyhow, I digress – slightly. Mercifully absent – from this edition at least – is the continuing docu-soap of Ruth Kelly and the debacle of the school sex offenders' register. But in this issue lies one of those defining moments in politics, which has largely been missed by the media – now there is a surprise.

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This came on Monday when, with the embattled Secretary of State under pressure from all sides, an official from the Department of Education announced: "We are looking at the role of ministers in the decision-making process and whether they should take these decisions."

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The reason why this is one of those "defining moments" is that, once again, an elected politician in trouble is seeking to evade responsibility - or in this case "restore public trust" - by stepping out of the decision-making loop and handing over responsibility to the er… officials.

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This, in fact, is the core ideology of the European Union - the root of Monnet's thinking, which he passed on to his mate Schuman. It is based on the premise that mere, venal politicians cannot be trusted with real work. Decisions must be left to wise, disinterested officials, who will weigh up all the "relevant" issues and pronounce in the "public interest".

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These are the "Platonic guardians" – this is the creed of the technocrat. Developing this theme, I have for the past few weeks been working on a research project devoted to the government's plans for police "restructuring" – this one for my MP who is especially outraged by Clarke's posturing.

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The one thing that comes over from our researches is that, to perform effectively, policing must be locally monitored and locally accountable, run by elected local officials.

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That much emerged from Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani's famous experiment in New York when, in late 1993, he introduced a regime of "zero tolerance", turning a notoriously crime-ridden city into one of the safest in the country.

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A key component of his success was intensive crime analysis sessions, using up-to-the minute crime statistics and computer "pin mapping" technology based on a system called COMPSTAT. This "transformed the NYPD from an organisation that reacted to crime to a Police Department that actively worked to deter offences."A crucial part of this was the publication, week by week, of local crime figures, so that residents of each neighbourhood could see exactly what was happening on their patch and what the police were doing about it.

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This was "accountability" in practice, where watch commanders were held personally responsible for their performances and sanctioned if they did not deal with the problems for which they were paid to resolve.

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But one of the broader points that also emerges is one of "localism". When central government interferes in local policing, the result is always an expensive disaster.

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Yet, down at local level, Decatur police department in Alabama – serving a population of 54,000 – boasts an establishment of 51 full time police employees, including support staff. It is able to do a better local job than the hundreds and thousands of overpaid Federal officials. There were, incidentally, 66 applicants for the police chief's job.

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The problem which emerges from this is that, as central government takes on more tasks, national politicians (and ministers) become submerged in so much detail that they can no longer cope.

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Inevitably, they slough off more and more tasks to their officials – hence Ruth Kelly seeking to delegate one of her responsibilities to a new band of officials.

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Centralisation, therefore, is the thief of local democracy and accountability but it does not spawn central democracy. Instead, it becomes the precursor to technocracy, leaving politicians to whitter away about "mini-brothels" and miss out on the minor fact that the offical theft of other peoples' cars is not always a good idea - bringing us neatly back to the original theme.If we are to return to good government, therefore, there must be limits on how far centralisation is allowed to proceed.

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The problem is that no one, as yet, seems to have a handle on how to stop it. I have a feeling that we will be coming back to this subject.

Troy's Briefs no 007

Troy's Briefs - changed weekly (usually). Dispelling another myth; that the EU is a free trade area. It is not.

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After the accession of the ten new states in 2004 to the European Union (EU) the British press claimed that the European EU had become “the world's biggest free trade area”. This myth is one of the most prevalent in relation to the European Union, especially so with “soft” Europhiles who believe that the “Single Market” – the outward manifestation of what is believed to be a trading agreement – is essentially a benign creation.

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The EU is most emphatically not a free trade area, and its structure is far from benign.

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Technically, the EU as – as was the EEC before it – is a Customs Union.

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A free trade area either eliminates or agrees standard levies and tariffs between members, but each member is free to make its own arrangements with third countries.

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The Customs Union shares the characteristics of common or zero tariffs between members but – and here is the important key distinction – it has a common tariff structure with third countries, the proceeds being paid into a central fund.

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As with the Bismark’s Customs Union, the so-called Zollverein, in order to manage this central fund, a “political instrument” is needed, in the form of a central government. This was noted by Arthur Salter in his 1931 book “The United States of Europe” .

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Salter with Monnet, established the template on which the EU was eventually modelled. He clearly recognised, all those years ago, the role of a Customs Union, writing that: “...the commercial and tariff policy of European States is so central and crucial a part of their general policy, the receipts from Customs are so central and substantial a part of their revenues, that a common political authority, deciding for all Europe what tariffs should be imposed and how they should be distributed, would be for every country almost as important as, or even more important than, the national Governments, and would in effect reduce the latter to the status of municipal authorities”.

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Small wonder that when in 1955 Paul-Henri Spaak and Monnet began to work on the outline of what was to become the Treaty of Rome, they considered and then rejected the idea of a free trade area.

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Their objective was to build a United States of Europe, and the customs union was the first essential step in its creation. But, if the concept of a customs union owed something to the German Zollverein, the way it was structured owed more to Colbertian mercantalism. While a system of mutual recognition of the different standards in the Community could have been entirely workable, the system was built on a rigid framework of regulation that imposed strict common standards as the precondition to trade between member states.

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Over the years, therefore, behind the protectionist barrier of a common external tariffs, the “Common Market” has also built up a web of inter-relating standards which have also served to inhibit trade with third countries.
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The US of E is what is on offer, therefore, and it is a very far cry from free trade. It is a dirigiste, inflexible, regulation-bound system based on the very antithesis of free trade, designed not primarily to promote trade but to protect member states from it, and designed to assist in the process of building a United States of Europe.

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Note:

Troy's Briefs cover only the vital aspects. The briefs may be taken down and used as required. For longer briefs please submit a request in the comments box below.

Thought for the day

"Leaders who believe they can create peace for themselves by creating war for others are mistaken."

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That is a comment from President Ahmadinejad, of Iran, which as well as being one of the most oppressive nations on earth, has recently clearly become one of the most dangerous. Whilst the British media focusses their attack on the latest political target, Ruth Kelly (Secetary of State for Education) the growing crisis in the Middle East deepens. We may only be weeks away from nuclear Armageddon, but who in the British media cares?

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More on Iran to follow; hopefully before it is too late !

North on Brown

Dr North comments on the latest spin from the UK's Prime Minister in waiting

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So, Mr Gordon Brown says that Britons should not shy away from showing more patriotism. It would help create a more defined sense of what it means to be British in the modern world, he tells us.

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Amongst his other sayings today: We should "embrace the Union flag", a symbol which has become increasingly associated with the far right or hooligans. "We should assert that the Union flag is a flag for tolerance and inclusion." "All the United Kingdom should honour it, not ignore it..."

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Er… excuse me. But a little niggle in the back of my mind reminds me that Mr Brown has lectured us about "patriotism" before – 10 June 2003 comes to mind when he was making the "patriotic case" for Britain's role in Europe, taking on the "myths and prejudices" about membership of the EU and the euro. And that was when the chancellor was telling us he believed "substantial progress" could be made to ensure the British economy is in a position to start the process of joining the single currency in 2004. Are we talking about the same man? Anyway, I think we'll pass on this one.

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The British have never felt the need to parade their nationality or their "patriotism", and certainly don't need any lectures from a Labour politician who clearly doesn’t know which way is up.

Four horse race

Four candidates have thrown their hat into the ring for the vacant position of Leader of the Lib-Dems.

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Unsurprisingly, Sir Menzies Cambell is acting Leader and was first to put himself in the mix. He has pledged to fight the next election to the left of new Labour. Well that won't be too difficult. The changes, or otherwise that Sir Menzies promises to intoduce pales into insignificance compared to the conundrum of how to pronounce his name, is it 'men-zees' or ming-is' ? Odds from VBS bookmakers - Evens.

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Mark Oaten, buoyed by the election of the Boy-king to lead the Tories thinks that as he has youth on his side, he is the ideal candidate. So maybe Boy-king mark 2 ! Odds - 5:1

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Simon Hughes, who lost out to Charles Kennedy in 1999's Leadership contest, and recent candidate for London Mayor dropped several hints before he came forward and said the he would also stand. and cites rising social inequalities between rich and poor as his main concern. Odds - 2:1

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Chris Huhne, 51, MP for Eastleigh (Chris who? to his rivals!) is the latest to join the race. He pledged low taxes, a green agenda and a radical programme to unite the party but vague on detail wich actually may endear him to the party members. However a rank outsider that could shorten odds. Odds - 25:1

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Like the Tories, the Lib-Dems are full of promises and devoid of policy.

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The race for the leadership of the Lib-Dems can be equated to four bald men fighting over a comb - they all want it, but it will turn out to be unimportant to the future prosperity of our nation.

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The prediction is that the Lib-Dems will be Minging all the way up to the next general election.

The Sunday Quote no. 142

''Justice - n. A commodity which in a more or less adulterate condition the State sells to the citizen as a reward for his allegience, taxes and personal service.''

Ambrose Bierce, The Devils Dictionary 1911

Surviving the vote

George Galloway, despite being nominated by several of his housemates, last night survived the public vote, escaped eviction and will remain in Channel 4's crassly inane, moronic and revolting yet depressingly popular programme 'Celebrity Big Brother', until at least next wednesday.

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Mr Galloway claims his decision to participate in the reality TV show was based on his desire to connect with younger voters.

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However, this decision will clearly backfire. Viewers have been unhappy with Galloway's part in what is seen as systematic bullying of younger housemates by older "celebrities".

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He has also been roundly criticised for imitating a cat in one of the tasks and pretending to lap cream from the hands of actress Rula Lenska.

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It seems in Britain, we don't mind our politicians looking foolish, but we object to them going out of their way to be rude.

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All very disrespectful.

Horsing around

A student who called a mounted policeman's horse "gay" will not be prosecuted, it has been revealed.

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But police have stood by their decision to take Sam Brown to court for making "homophobic comments" despite the Crown Prosecution Service dropping the case.

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Mr Brown, 21, a student at Oxford University, had said to an officer: "Excuse me, do you realise your horse is gay?"

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Police took the case to court after Mr Brown refused to pay a £80 fine.
Mr Brown, who made the comment during a night out with friends in Oxford after his final exams, was arrested under section 5 of the Public Order Act for making homophobic remarks.
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His remarks were deemed likely to cause harassment, alarm or distress.
The English Literature graduate, from Belfast, spent the night of 30 May last year in a police cell.

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It emerged at Oxford Magistrates' Court on Thursday that the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) had chosen to discontinue the case.
Prosecutor Cariad Eveson-Webb said there was not enough evidence to prove Mr Brown had been disorderly.

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Thames Valley Police defended their decision to take the case to court.
A spokesman said: "We present the case to the CPS and the CPS make the decision to proceed or not.
"He made homophobic comments that were deemed offensive to people passing by."

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So are we to understand that simply using the word "gay" is now considered offensive? One wonders how this works when applied to racism and sexism laws.

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For example, "Excuse me, did you realise you were a police woman?" - would that be enough to earn me a night in the cells?

What about, "Excuse me, did you realise your horse is black and white?"

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One couldn't make it up!

Taxing times

This way for the hand-cuffs Mr Prescott and no punching please.

It would appear that Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott, above, has had to apologise about unpaid Council tax on his official apartment in Admiralty Arch, Westminster. Apparently, the tax had gone unpaid for somewhere in the region of seven years. Since the non-payment had been brought to light, £3,800 had been paid "in error" from the public purse, when the bill should have been footed by Prescott personally. The money has since been re-paid. A further sum of around £6,000 remains outstanding.

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It is particularly embarrassing as John Prescott heads the Government department responsible for overseeing Council tax nationally.

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The phrase "people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones" springs to mind. Also, as a pensioner was recently jailed for refusing to pay only part of his Council Tax, one wonders if Prescott should be acquainting himself with the taste of porridge, just in case!

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600 not out!

This is the 600th posting on this blog. We have covered subjects as diverse as fishing policy and football, G8 and G4, defence policy and disabled flying, policing and party conferences.

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As we continue to grow, we'd like to take a minute to welcome our many new readers, who have joined us in the past week or so. It's great to have you along - click on the comments button and tell us what you think. We may not agree with you (Peter almost certainly won't!) but we still value your comments.

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Head in the sand

In just one short week, we have covered subjects ranging from defence procurement, the (ab)use of academia to produce public policy, the ports and services directive, the denied boarding directive, refuse collection, recycling, food safety, waste of regional funds, nuclear power and energy policy, and the deteriorating situation in Iran.

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All these issues are in some way (mostly) directly or indirectly linked to our membership of the European Union and we know that we have not begun to cover the full range of EU-related issues that have broken into the news during the last seven days.

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Without even reading our comments on the issues we have covered, however, it must be apparent even to the casual reader now pervasive has become the European Union and how great is its influence in our daily lives – all from something that, in 1970 was "sold" to us as a trade agreement.

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In a way, therefore, we can understand why the media, politicians – and much of the population - shies away from discussing the EU and adopts a determinedly head-in-the-sand pose. It is all too much to take on board… too complicated and too depressing.

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Even on this blog we feel the strain, for the range of issues is almost too much for even the both of us to deal with. It is, for instance, quite a conceptual leap to be writing, on the one hand, about growing Iranian crisis and then, in this next post, descending from high politics back into the weeds, to deal with something as mundane as Value Added Tax.

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But deal with it we must, as it is all part of that ever-encroaching system of government – our government – that we call the European Union. This time – as so often – the story is about VAT fraud, with an unusual twist.

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Yesterday, the ECJ ruled that the British government could not refuse to reimburse VAT to bona fide companies which had sold goods to other companies which had turned out to be fraudulent and had not paid their VAT.

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According to the version in the Scotsman, the government may now have to change domestic law to accommodate the ruling, with dealt with three British companies, Optigen, Fulcrum Electronics and Bond House Systems. They supplied goods which, unknown to them, later became part of a so-called carousel fraud.

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In such a fraud, a trader in a circle of transactions claims back paid VAT and disappears before passing on the repayment. The products may then arrive back with the original supplier who may be entirely innocent.

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A British tax tribunal declared that original traders could not deduct input tax on goods involved in the fraud, even where they were innocent parties. The High Court referred the matter to the ECJ which ruled that: "The right of a taxable person to deduct VAT cannot be affected by the fact that, without that person knowing or having any means of knowing, another transaction in the chain is vitiated by fraud."

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One can see what the Government was trying to do – effectively trying to offset some of its losses from a type of fraud which costs the country more than £1 billion a year – by dumping the responsibility on traders.

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The human cost of this tactic has been serious. One company, Bond House, according to Mobile Europe, was owed £13.2 million by the Revenue and Ian Prescott, founding partner and director of the company, based in Castleford, West Yorkshire, was forced to cease trading. He had to make 20 people redundant and he and the other business directors and their families, he says, "have suffered terribly as a result of the Customs actions."

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All this was to protect a system which is increasingly indefensible. In August last year we wrote that, since 1990, VAT fraud is estimated to have cost the Exchequer at least £20bn - another cost attributable to our membership of the EU.

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Furthermore, according to the newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, a wave of VAT fraud had been hitting Germany, with suspicions that the proceeds are being used to finance terrorism. And, compared with the UK, costs were even higher, the annual loss estimated at €20 billion (£14 billion).

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So vulnerable is this highly complex, bureaucratic tax, we wrote, with multiple payments and refunds, that it is a fraudster's dream, and no sooner is one loophole plugged than criminal gangs find another scam. Were we free agents, the tax would have been long abolished, and replaced with the simpler and less fraud-prone sales tax.But, of course, since we are not free agents, there is absolutely nothing we can do about this haemorrhage of money. So – rather than the media getting excited – the news passed without the ripple - what's a mere billion quid, eh? - as will this current story. And there is the answer to the EU: keep your head in the sand boys. The trouble is, it won't go away.

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With thanks to Dr Richard North, and his blog.

Police postings

Photograph by Peter Troy, Whitehall, November 2005.

With the findings of the Independant Police Complaints Commission's investigation into the shooting of Brazilian Jean Charles de Menezes imminent and Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Sir Ian Blair's (or Plod Blair as we like to call him) recent call for debate on policing in Britain, we on this blog are keen to encourage discussion on police issues.

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Grouped below are all our recent related postings as evidence of our concern.

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Comments are both welcomed and positively encouraged - join the debate, make your voice heard. Though readers are cautioned that they do not have to comment but it may harm their basic freedoms if they do not do so!

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Horsing around.

Police Matters.

Political police.

The Dimbleby Lecture.

Armed Met think they are above the law.

Now then - what's going on here?

New bills from the old bill

The saturday essay

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Much more to follow.

Hits on this blog

Wednesday January 11, 2001 188
Tuesday January 10, 2006 127
Monday January 09, 2006 141
Sunday January 08, 2006 114
Saturday January 07, 2006 149
Friday January 06, 2006 282
Thursday January 05, 2006 361

The mid week quote no 11

''As with respect, contempt cuts both way. Our population may be divided in its politics and aspirations, but we are united in one thing – our universal contempt for our rulers. And if we have contempt for them, that soon extends to embrace their laws as well. This may manifest itself in different ways, at different levels of society, but the malaise is the same. That, the prime minister will not be able to wash away with a pressure-jet cleaner.''

Dr Richard North - writing today on Tony Blair's 'respect' initiative.

Icons of Englishness

What do Punch and Judy, a cup of tea and the SS Empire Windrush have in common?

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All are national icons that sum up the essence of England, a new government website claims today.

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They are on a list of 12 "national treasures" that the website, set up with £1 million of taxpayers' money, claims should kick-start a debate on the designs, artworks and monuments that sum up the idea of "Englishness".

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The creators hope to add 108 items to the list over the next year as a result of suggestions from the public and an advisory board. They will be reviewed every quarter.

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"ICONS - A Portrait of England" is the brainchild of Culture Online, an offshoot of the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

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Mike Greenwood, of Culture Online, said: "This is not about nationalistic symbols. It is more a celebration of our culture and cultural objects and passions. It is about the things that really matter to people."

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The first 12 "Icons of England" are Stonehenge, Punch and Judy, the SS Empire Windrush, Holbein's portrait of Henry VIII, a cup of tea, the FA Cup, Alice in Wonderland, the Routemaster double-decker bus, the King James Bible, the Angel of the North, the Spitfire and Jerusalem.

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David Lammy, the culture minister, said: "Who hasn't ached for a proper cup of tea when they've been on an overseas holiday or yearned for their team to pick up the FA Cup at the end of the season? The ICONS website helps us to build up a national identity."

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It is hoped that the project will spark debate about what makes England what it is in the 21st century and increase the number of visitors to museums.

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Jerry Doyle, managing director of ICONS, the company set up to administer the project, said: "Ultimately, we want to build up a snapshot of the real England that people live in, not just fluffy pictures of England. Initially we are aiming at 120 icons but eventually we hope there will be hundreds."

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People can nominate anything, but not a person, that they believe builds up a picture of England. It is planned to extend the project to Wales, Scotland and possibly Ireland, if funding becomes available.

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But not everyone is convinced. Dan Cruikshank, the television presenter best known for his series Britain's Best Buildings and Around the World in 80 Treasures, said: "It seems like a lot of hot air to me. I think they would be better off spending the money on saving some of our cultural icons that are falling apart."

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At veryBritishsubjects, we believe that of the twelve "icons" listed, conspicuous by it's absence is Parliamentary democracy, which the British invented and have developed over 80o years.

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Of course, parliamentary democracy is at this time thing of the past due to our continued membership of the EU.